March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data was consistent with expectations, reporting a 0.3% month-over-month rise. However, it slightly exceeded projections on a year-over-year basis, coming in at 2.7%. UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Economist Brian Rose joins The Morning Brief to analyze how these figures could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate cut outlook.
Rose acknowledges that the current inflation data "has been too high" for the Fed to embark on monetary easing. He identifies "the big problem for the Fed" as core services, factors tied to robust demand and wage growth: "This is where they need to see disinflation," he says. In March, the core PCE inflation figure stood at 2.8%.
While Rose predicts the Fed could initiate rate cuts in September, he cautioned that if inflation data persists at elevated levels, "it could get pushed back even further."
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