Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America Securities, assesses the potential energy market impact of drawn-out conflict in the Middle East.
Oil tumbled after US President Donald Trump said the Iran war will end soon, while the conflict continues to disrupt crude production and refining in the Middle East.
Global benchmark Brent fell as much as 11% before clawing back some losses, following a dramatic session on Monday that saw the biggest intraday price swing on record. Trump said he would resolve the war, waive oil-related sanctions and get the US Navy to escort tankers through the vital Strait of Hormuz. He told Fox News on Tuesday that he was also open to speaking with Iran.
Still, prices remain up by more than 50% this year as fears a conflict would hinder supplies from the Middle East increasingly materialize. Four of the region’s giants — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait — have lowered their collective output by as much as 6.7 million barrels a day, with the war effectively closing the region’s main export route and causing storage tanks to fill up. The UAE’s biggest oil refinery halted as a precaution after a nearby drone attack.
The latest price swings reflect one of the oil market’s most volatile periods on record, testing traders’ limits. Brent was fluctuating around $91 a barrel Tuesday — a day after trading as high as $119.50 and as low as $83.66. Financial flows, including from options markets, have likely exacerbated those swings, with a gauge of market volatility near the highest since 2020.
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