The hollowing out of local economies in the American heartland helped lead to the rise of Donald Trump as a political force. Seeking to rebalance US-China trade and bring manufacturing jobs home, Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term that were kept in place by the Biden administration. Chinese manufacturers priced out of the US had to search for alternative markets, while some moved production to other countries to evade duties.
Boosting exports became even more urgent when President Xi Jinping took steps around 2020 to deflate a property bubble. He then ramped up investment in manufacturing to bolster the economy, propelling China’s trade surplus to an all-time high of just under $1 trillion in 2024. While Xi’s government has signaled its intention to shift the economy more toward consumption, robust exports will still be needed this year to hit an ambitious growth target of about 5%.
The pain in countries such Indonesia is being felt in other emerging economies, and it’s only set to get worse: Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on China even higher, after hiking them by 20% since taking office in January. This means the country’s exporters, by far the most competitive in the world, are looking to replace any lost orders—a dynamic that risks unleashing an even larger flood of Chinese goods around the globe.
Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Editor of Foreign Affairs, offers his take on the US-China dynamic and whether the concept of globalism is a thing of the past. Dan speaks with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.
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