Wall Street analysts are projecting lower oil (BZ=F, CL=F) prices in 2025, with forecasts ranging from $65 to $76 per barrel. Roth Capital Partners senior energy analyst Leo Mariani and S&P Global Commodity Insights head of global oil Richard Joswick join Catalysts to discuss their oil market outlooks. Mariani identifies three key factors driving the oil market heading into the new year: potential increased sanctions, modest improvements in Middle Eastern selling prices, and OPEC countries planning "to make up for that in the first part of ’25 with some compensatory production cuts" to address previous overproduction. "The key thing is that non-OPEC plus production is growing faster than the demand for oil," Joswick explains. He adds, "Even if we have a cutback in some other areas, it’s still likely that we’re going to have more supply coming onto the market than there is the demand for that crude oil, and that means inventories are likely to build," suggesting downward pressure on oil prices in the near term. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Mariani emphasizes Iran as the key country to watch, noting the incoming Trump administration’s focus on "significant economic sanctions" against the nation, warning "there could be a lot to lose" if these sanctions take effect. Watch the video above for their complete analysis of oil prices and the potential impact of Trump administration tariffs on the oil market.
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